“There will be no war, Poland will certainly not become a part of the war, because I believe that Putin does not want the war with NATO. Putin would probably lose the war with NATO. This war would be long-lasting and probably would humble Russia,” said the evaluation of former Deputy Minister of National Defense, Commander of the Land forces between 2006 and 2009 Lt Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak.
Skrzypczak was asked in TVN24 how the worst possible scenario of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would influence Poland, he said that there will be no war.
“There will be no war, Poland will certainly not become a part of the war, because I believe that Putin’s war with NATO does not want it. Putin’s war with NATO would probably lose. This war would be long-lasting and probably would humble Russia. (…) Russia cannot afford the long-term war. So, I think we can sleep calmly, but (…) we have to be prepared for chips that may be different,” Gen. Skrzypczak said, indicating a possible influx of refugees.
On February 10 Russian-Belarusian joint exercises took place, and on February 13 the Black Sea manoeuvres began. All these measures should be completed by 20 February. Russia assures that the soldiers participating in the exercises in Belarus will return to the units in Russia after the exercises.
Russia has collected more than 100,000 troops on its territory on the Ukrainian border as well as in Belarus. The Western countries are extremely concerned about the concentration of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and are warning Moscow of the consequences of possible aggression against the country. Russia claims to have no such plans, and demands from the US and NATO a “guarantee” not to extend the alliance to Ukraine and to withdraw its infrastructure “from its borders.”
At the end of last year, Russia made several demands of the US and NATO, calling them proposals for security guarantees. Russia calls for legal guarantees for the non-enlargement of NATO to include Ukraine; The countries of the Alliance have already ruled out this demand. If the demands are not met, Moscow announces steps, including military ones, although it does not specify what measures they might take. Ukraine and Western countries believe that Russia’s troop concentration on the Ukrainian border serves to put pressure on Kyiv and its supporting capitals. Military experts and Western governments speak of a real risk of Russian aggression. Diplomatic talks are underway.