back to top

    What will happen in Ukraine in the coming days? Three possible scenarios for the course of the war

    CNN, citing its sources, reported that Western officials are considering three potential scenarios that they believe could happen in the near future in a war unleashed by Russia.

    Scenario I


    According to the first, Russia may continue to capture more areas in two of its key regions in eastern Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk).


    Scenario II


    The second scenario assumes a stalemate that will drag on for months or years, causing huge losses on both sides and triggering a creeping crisis that will weigh on the global economy, CNN wrote on its website.


    Scenario III


    There is also a third possibility, which is the least likely: Russia could redefine its military objectives, declare that it has achieved victory and try to bring the fighting to an end. This scenario seems to be only a pipe dream, CNN insiders said.


    If Russia succeeds in consolidating some of its gains in the east, Putin could use the territory as a launching pad for further action in Ukraine, the station quoted US officials’ fear.


    They quoted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as saying on Tuesday:


    “I am convinced that if Ukraine is not strong enough, they will go further,” Zelenski said in an attempt to urge the West to deliver more weapons faster. “We have shown them our strength. And it is important that this strength is also shown with us by our Western partners,” he added. “Western military aid must come faster if Ukraine’s allies want to stop Russia’s territorial ambitions,” the Ukrainian president stressed as quoted by CNN.


    Western officials widely believe that Russia is at an advantage in the east, relying solely on the numerous military troops there. However, “Russia’s progress is not a foregone conclusion” – said a senior official in President Joe Biden’s administration.


    The conflict has turned into a war of attrition in the eastern regions, involving mutual artillery fire. Both sides have suffered huge casualties and are now facing potential manpower shortages. Russia has lost up to a third of its ground forces, and US intelligence officials have said it will be difficult for Russia to make any serious gains without full mobilisation, a politically dangerous move that Putin has so far refused to accept, CNN reported.


    For now, fighting is concentrated in two cities on opposite sides of the Donets River – Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. In Severodonetsk, Ukrainian soldiers are almost completely encircled, we read in the message.




    More in section