“Lukashenko has nothing to offer at the moment except fear, and this fear must be greater than the alternative. In other words, as long as he does not lead Belarus openly into war, the social cost of rebellion for the people will be higher than obedience. On the other hand, if he makes them die for Russia, it may turn out that they prefer to die for themselves. In my opinion, this could be the trigger for a revolt, should it occur,” says international affairs expert Professor Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski in an interview with Niezalezna.pl.
Last week, Alexander Lukashenko announced that he would be combining the forces of his reservists with the Russian military to create ‘regional troops’ to protect Belarus’ border amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This is yet another illustration of how dependent the Belarusian dictator is on the will of the Kremlin. Niezalezna.pl asked political scientist Prof. Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski what future Lukashenko may await and whether he knows any way out of the current situation.
“I think that Lukashenko has no way out of the corner he has backed himself into, which does not mean that he will step down immediately. The nature of a dictatorship is such that the moment of collapse will surprise everyone. If it did not surprise, after all, the dictator could have prepared and stepped aside. We do not know when that will occur. Lukashenko, on the other hand, has nothing to offer at the moment except fear, and this fear must be greater than the alternative. In other words, as long as he does not lead Belarus openly into war, the social cost of rebellion for the people will be higher than obedience. On the other hand, if he makes them die for Russia, it may turn out that they prefer to die for themselves. In my opinion, this could be the trigger for a revolt, if it occurs,” the expert.
He adds that ‘Lukashenko is aware of this, the Lukashenko nomenklatura and his army are also aware of this, and they do not want such a solution.’
“Therefore, for the time being, Belarus is taking part in this aggression by allowing Russian troops into its territory. Lukashenko is not sending people, and he will likely continue to defend himself against this. However, we do not know how successful he will be. The Russians have him in their grasp, but he also knows that yielding to their will would be a very risky step for the stability of his regime. At the same time, I don’t think he has any way out either. Lukashenko is in Belarus only thanks to Russian support, if it wasn’t for them, he would be gone. If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will lose the opportunity to stabilise the Belarusian regime and then it will fall by revolutionary means, not by evolutionary means, because this dictatorship is too brutal. These are the scenarios. There is no moderate scenario. The question is how brutal its end will be,” Professor Żurawski vel Grajewski said.