“According to George Friedman, founder of the Stratfor think tank, sometimes referred to as a private CIA, the United States’ constant concern is to prevent the emergence of a power that could threaten the USA. The entire 20th century was a period of Washington’s rise to global leadership”, writes Tomasz Sakiewicz in Gazeta Polska.
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“After World War I, the USA entered the global stage as a significant force, but it was still not considered a first-tier superpower.
It was only World War II that completely changed the situation. Colonial powers such as France and Britain collapsed, and Nazi Germany was destroyed. The United States and the Soviet Union remained on the battlefield. The USA led the free world, while the Soviets supported totalitarian regimes. Moscow’s power turned out to be illusory. Fortunately, the strength of both superpowers’ armies was never tested in direct conflict, but in economic competition, Red Russia suffered a crushing defeat and eventually collapsed. Beijing took Moscow’s place. China combined communist totalitarianism with a market economy, which gave it a 40-year development boost. That boost is now coming to an end.
In truth, China’s recent attempts to catch up with Washington were largely facilitated by the USA itself. Policies like the “Green Deal,” while China benefited from cheap Russian energy, prolonged a competition that China ultimately cannot win. I don’t know if, as Friedman suggests, China will break apart into wealthy port cities and a poor hinterland, or if it will simply enter a period of stagnation. However, India—already the world’s most populous country—is poised to take China’s place in the race for economic dominance. The competition between China and India may become so intense that the USA will have full control over shaping the global board.
That leaves the issue of Europe. The European Union remains the world’s largest market. It has half the population of China or India, but its citizens are several times wealthier. Whoever secures access to the European market becomes a global power.
The United Kingdom left the EU, but not entirely the European market. It is managing, albeit with some difficulties, thanks to its ties with the Commonwealth—the world’s largest informal political and economic organization. The UK’s exit from the EU clearly hurt two countries the most: the USA and Poland.
The United States lost an easy bridge into the EU, while Poland lost a key ally in any potential geopolitical game against Germany. The response to this was supposed to be the Three Seas Initiative, which positioned Poland as the main player in Central Europe and a key partner for the USA. However, all these plans fell apart with the toppling—ironically, with Biden’s administration playing a role—of Poland’s conservative government. Germany installed Donald Tusk, whose main task includes limiting American influence in the region.
If Donald Trump wants to regain a foothold in the European market and its politics, he must first correct the mistakes of his predecessor. Everything else will be mere illusion, even if Tusk follows through on purchasing some previously ordered American military equipment.
America can never be truly great without Europe, and without Poland, it can never have real influence in Europe.“