Throughout the entire period of power of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, and later president of Kazakhstan, although the country was formally juggling between Russia, China, and the U.S., in reality, it was under the Russian influence.
On the other hand, China has been steadily increasing its interest in its western neighbor, which not only has huge deposits of raw materials but is also a forefront of the European continent (rail and road routes of the New Silk Road run right through Kazakhstan). So, whoever controls Kazakhstan will rule Asia over time. China realizes this, and so does Russia, which cannot afford to lose influence in the region.
Russia’s assistance to Astana’s ruling will likely come at a tangible price – increased dependence on Moscow. Nevertheless, the Kremlin’s need for even temporary involvement in the region may make it more difficult for it to attack Ukraine. The color revolutions that erupted in many regions of eastern Europe and the Caucasus in the 21st century may continue in Central Asia today. Ultimately, it is also the case that post-Soviet societies wake up sooner or later and reject authoritarian rule subservient to Russia.