According to a recent survey conducted by the Estymator pollster, the ruling United Right coalition is poised to win the upcoming election with 35.8 percent of the vote. The findings, released on Saturday, indicate a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points in United Right’s support since the previous survey conducted on May 11-12.
The main opposition group, the centrist Civic Coalition, secures second place with 25.2 percent, followed by Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL). The latter two parties have formed a coalition named the Third Way, and they hold a combined support of 14.9 percent. These projections shed light on the possible dynamics of the general election scheduled for this autumn.
In terms of parliamentary representation, the far-right Confederation party is expected to secure seats with 11.5 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, the New Left, a coalition consisting of the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), the Spring (Wiosna), and Together (Razem) parties, is projected to receive 9.5 percent support, granting them a presence in the parliament as well.
The remaining political groupings, unfortunately, fall below the 5-percent parliamentary threshold and are unlikely to secure seats in the legislature.
Based on the survey results, the United Right would gain 191 seats in the Sejm (lower house of parliament), with the Civic Coalition securing 124 seats. The Confederation party is expected to claim 45 seats, while the New Left would have 34 seats if the election were held today.
The estimated turnout for the upcoming election stands at 57 percent, according to the survey. The data was collected between May 25-26 and involved 1,055 Polish citizens who had declared their intention to vote in the forthcoming elections. The survey was conducted using computer-assisted methods and was commissioned by DoRzeczy.pl, a prominent website.