A recent poll has reignited the debate over a potential coalition between Poland’s party with the highest voter support – Law and Justice Party (PiS) and the right-wing Confederation party. Conducted by the Pollster Institute for Super Express in mid-November, the survey reveals contrasting opinions among the parties’ supporters, underlining deep-seated divisions within Poland’s conservative landscape.
A Coalition on the Horizon?
The poll underscores a potential political shift, suggesting that a PiS-Confederation coalition could secure a parliamentary majority, particularly if the Third Way party fails to surpass the electoral threshold. Current support stands at 34.3% for PiS and 13.5% for Confederation, creating a scenario where these two right-wing parties could jointly form a government.
However, while the numbers suggest feasibility, the attitudes of party supporters present a different story.
Supporters Speak: Division Among the Base
Among PiS voters, 51% consider a coalition with Confederation a viable option, while 28% oppose the idea, and the remainder remain undecided. Confederation’s supporters, however, are more resistant, with 48% rejecting such an alliance and only 39% supporting it.
This divergence stems from years of competition between the two parties. Confederation has often criticized PiS for its policies, including economic programs perceived as overly interventionist and its monopolization of conservative media platforms. Conversely, PiS has historically sidelined Confederation, limiting their visibility in government-controlled media.
A Complex Future for the Right
The survey, conducted using CAWI methodology on 1,044 adult Poles from November 12-13, 2024, highlights the complexities of coalition politics in Poland. While electoral math might favor an alliance, ideological rifts and historical grievances remain significant obstacles. As the political landscape evolves, the actions of both parties’ leadership will likely determine whether such a coalition can become a reality—or remain a theoretical exercise.
Poland’s next political chapter may hinge on bridging these divides, with potential repercussions for its governance and conservative movement.