In the latest IBRiS poll, Poland’s political landscape appears to be shifting, with the United Right coalition, under the leadership of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, maintaining its frontrunner status. According to the survey, the coalition commands 32.6 percent of the vote, giving it a comfortable lead of six percentage points over its primary rival, the centrist Civic Coalition (KO).
The IBRiS poll, conducted for the Polsat news channel, indicates a slight uptick in support for the United Right, as it gained 0.2 percentage points in comparison to the August poll. This trend showcases the coalition’s resilience in the face of evolving political dynamics.
In contrast, KO, the leading opposition party, experienced a notable decline in its popularity, falling from 30.6 percent in the previous month to 26.6 percent in the current survey. This significant drop has raised questions about the party’s strategy and appeal among voters.
The center-right Third Way, an alliance consisting of Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party, secured the third position with 10.6 percent support, marking an increase from the 9 percent it garnered in August.
The New Left coalition witnessed a rise in its ratings, with 9.9 percent of respondents indicating their intent to vote for the coalition of left-leaning parties, up from 7.7 percent in the prior poll.
Conversely, the hard-right Confederation experienced a decrease in support, dropping from 11.8 percent in August to 9.5 percent in the current poll, signaling potential challenges for this faction.
The poll revealed that 9.2 percent of respondents remain undecided about which party to support, highlighting the fluidity of the political landscape.
In terms of voter turnout, the survey reported a participation rate of 58.6 percent, indicating a substantial level of civic engagement leading up to the elections on October 15.
Respondents were also asked about their expectations regarding the composition of the future government after the elections. Notably, 35.6 percent of those surveyed believe that the United Right coalition will continue in power, while 27.6 percent anticipate that opposition parties will form the new cabinet.
The IBRiS survey was conducted between September 15 and 17, involving 1,000 adult Polish citizens across the nation. The CATI method was employed for data collection, providing insights into the evolving political landscape ahead of the forthcoming elections.