– In Ukraine, there is a high probability of the repetition of the situation from the Polish-Belarusian border. (…) The Interior Ministry of Ukraine has already announced that 10 sections on the border have been identified, which can be approached by migrants. Protection of these sites is to be strengthened,” assessed Oleksiy Melnyk, an expert from the Razumkov Center.
According to Melnyk, Alyaksandr Lukashenka together with Vladimir Putin “are trying to push the narrative that we should talk to Lukashenka, recognize him as a legitimate president and make concessions, and everything will settle down.”
“But if Poland and Brussels do not give in, (…) Lukashenka will want to get rid of the migrants; then, possibly, this instrument will be cynically used to create a zone of destabilization in Ukraine” predicts the expert.
“Then the puzzle comes together: the (Russian) troops that stand on the border, the conflict between Ukraine and Belarus, and the Russian ally that goes to Lukashenko’s aid,” he says.
The interlocutor of the Polish Press Agency assesses that in Ukraine there is a high probability of the repetition of the situation from the Polish-Belarusian border. He also notes that these borders differ considerably: the border between Ukraine and Belarus is partly a marshland section, partly fenced, and partly uncontrolled and without infrastructure. The Interior Ministry of Ukraine has already announced that 10 sections on the border have been identified, which can be approached by migrants. The protection of these sites is to be strengthened.
Oleksiy Melnyk recalls that there were “discrepancies” between recent reports by some US media on Russian troop movements near the Ukrainian border and the Ukrainian side, with both sides being right to some extent, the analyst stresses.