The latest CBOS poll reveals a significant 6-point rise in support for the Law and Justice Party (PiS), now at 31%. This surge marks a recovery from earlier declines and highlights PiS’s growing appeal as a perceived ally of U.S. Republican politics. Meanwhile, support for Civic Coalition (KO) dropped 2 points to 32%, maintaining its narrow lead.
Challenges for Third Way
The Third Way coalition (Polska 2050 and PSL) garnered 7% support, falling short of the 8% threshold required for coalitions to enter parliament. Despite a modest 2-point improvement since early November, these figures highlight its precarious position. Confederation improved slightly to 13%, while Left Party slipped to 6%, losing 1 point.
The poll notes a reduction in undecided voters, down by 5 points to 9%. Analysts attribute PiS’s resurgence to a “demonstration effect” following Donald Trump’s surprise U.S. election victory, which may have reinvigorated PiS’s base.
Record High Voter Turnout Anticipated
A remarkable 86% of respondents declared their intention to vote if elections were held in November, the highest turnout prediction since 2023. The poll, conducted from November 18 to 20 using CATI and CAWI methods, surveyed 1,000 Polish adults.