“If in a country as large as France, it is possible to eliminate from the elections one of the key political figures—who, moreover, is leading in the polls—then, by extension, similar situations may be expected elsewhere. Let us not forget what happened earlier in Romania. These are unprecedented developments, previously unseen in Europe,” said Kacper Kita, an expert on French affairs and columnist for the Nowy Ład portal, in an interview with Niezależna.pl.
Today, a court in Paris found Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French right, guilty of misappropriating public funds in a case concerning the fictitious employment of parliamentary assistants by Members of the European Parliament. The court also found eight of her co-defendants guilty. The sentence handed down was four years of imprisonment, two of which are suspended.
Additionally, the court imposed an electoral ban on Le Pen and the other convicted individuals. This ban is to be enforced immediately and will remain in effect for five years. As a result, Marine Le Pen will be ineligible to run in the 2027 presidential election.
The court’s ruling that the sentence be executed immediately means the ban is effective even in the event of an appeal; appealing the verdict would not suspend the enforcement of the penalty.
Le Pen herself left the courtroom before the full verdict was read and before the court announced her sentence. She later arrived at the headquarters of the National Rally (RN) but did not speak to the journalists gathered outside.
“We are dealing with an unprecedented situation in which the leading opposition figure—who is also leading in the polls—is excluded from the presidential race,”
said Kacper Kita once again, emphasizing the gravity of the case.
Kita draws parallels and contrasts between the French court’s verdict and events in Romania, where a court first annulled the presidential election results and subsequently barred Călin Georgescu from running again. Georgescu had won the annulled first round of the election and was leading in polls ahead of the rescheduled vote, set for May.
“Of course, the political analogies are evident. In Romania, we are almost certain Georgescu would have become president, had it not been for the court’s decision. In France, the election is still two years away. The Romanian court’s decision was made ad hoc—no wrongdoing was proven, and yet he was disqualified. Here, there was an actual trial. Furthermore, the allegations against Marine Le Pen are significantly less severe than those directed at Georgescu, who was accused of ties with Russia. In Le Pen’s case, it concerns administrative matters—such as whether she, as an MEP, could employ bodyguards as her parliamentary assistants. The case involves a few million euros, which, from a state budgetary perspective, is not a significant amount,”
Kita explains.
According to Kita, most French citizens perceive the entire affair as politically motivated. “What’s more, even the French left, which openly disagrees with Marine Le Pen, has issued a statement asserting that everyone should have the right to appeal a sentence. Meanwhile, the election ban was enacted immediately,” he adds.
Le Pen will remain a Member of Parliament, as the sentence disqualifies her only from running in future elections and does not terminate her current mandate. She will also continue to lead the largest parliamentary group in the French National Assembly.
In the expert’s opinion, this scenario paves the way for Jordan Bardella, the current leader of the National Rally (RN), to run for president.
“Bardella may run in the election and, theoretically, if he wins, he could nominate Le Pen as Prime Minister. According to polls, he currently trails Le Pen by only 2–3 percentage points. That is a gap he could certainly close in the two years remaining before the election,”
Kita notes.
“The National Rally is too large a political force to be completely excluded from political life. However, it must be acknowledged that Le Pen will now come under intense attack from her opponents, who will portray her as a convicted thief. From her side, one can expect a narrative asserting that this is a politically motivated verdict and that the punishment is grossly disproportionate to the alleged offences,”
Kita concludes.