The global financial landscape in 2025 is poised for significant transformations, driven by major political changes, geopolitical tensions, and evolving economic strategies. With Donald Trump returning as U.S. president and conflicts persisting in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East, markets are bracing for a volatile yet opportunity-filled year. Analysts weigh in on the events and trends that may shape global and local economies, including Poland’s outlook.
Trump’s Return and the Global Economy
On January 20, Donald Trump will reclaim the U.S. presidency, and his approach to governance and trade is expected to set the tone for the global economy. Trump’s focus on protectionist policies could challenge globalization and disrupt established trade norms.
“Trump will undoubtedly be the star of 2025,” says Krzysztof Adamczak, currency analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl, pointing out his significant influence on both U.S. and global markets. However, his unpredictability raises concerns. As Krzysztof Pawlak notes, Trump’s social media activity alone has the power to disrupt global stability with a single post.
Conflict Hotspots: Ukraine and the Middle East
Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East are expected to remain critical in 2025. Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine offers hope, with potential benefits for Poland as a key player in reconstruction efforts.
The Middle East, however, remains volatile. “The region is more unstable than it has been in years,” says Adamczak. While Trump’s goal of $40-per-barrel oil may be ambitious, any de-escalation could lower oil prices, easing inflationary pressures and benefiting the global economy.
Inflation and Interest Rates in Poland
Poland’s inflation is projected to average above 5% in 2025, though a gradual decline is expected in subsequent years. Restrictive monetary policies are anticipated to stabilize price dynamics, but relief for borrowers may be slow.
“I foresee one or two rate cuts by the end of 2025,” says Adamczak, emphasizing that any policy easing will likely be cautious. However, the phasing out of energy price protections could trigger localized inflation spikes.
Polish Zloty: Strength Amid Challenges
The Polish zloty (PLN) faces early challenges in 2025, with a strong dollar exerting downward pressure. Nevertheless, Poland’s robust economy may bolster the currency’s appeal to investors.
“Monetary policy will play a decisive role,” predicts Pawlak, who expects the EUR/PLN exchange rate to close the year around 4.35. Despite potential setbacks, Poland’s economic fundamentals remain a solid foundation for investor confidence.
Global Markets Prepare for the Unexpected
The intersection of political upheavals, volatile commodity prices, and unresolved conflicts sets the stage for an unpredictable year in global markets. Analysts warn of the possibility of a “black swan” event—an unforeseen development that could reshape market dynamics.
Amid the risks, opportunities abound for those ready to adapt to shifting conditions. In 2025, the financial world is expected to be anything but ordinary, offering both challenges and rewards for investors and policymakers alike.
This article is based on expert opinions and reports provided by InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl. The content does not constitute financial advice or recommendations. Investors are advised to conduct their own research before making decisions.