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The European Financial Congress’s (EKF) latest economic consensus for Poland paints an optimistic picture, foreseeing a robust 3% GDP growth, increased real wages, and the EU’s lowest unemployment rate. However, despite the positive outlook, inflation, exceeding 6%, is anticipated to persist through 2024 and beyond.
Positive Growth Outlook
EKF’s economic experts predict a significant GDP acceleration, reaching approximately 2.8% in 2024, up from the current 0.5%. Subsequent years are expected to see stable and robust economic growth around 3.5%, primarily driven by private consumption.
Factors Fueling Consumer Spending
Lowest unemployment in the EU, projected to stay below 3% until 2026, and real wage increases contribute to the anticipated surge in consumer spending. Despite a slight slowdown in wage growth, inflation’s impact on purchasing power is expected to be less pronounced.
Lingering Inflation Challenges
While average annual inflation is forecasted to decrease from 11.6% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024, it will likely remain above the Central Bank’s 3.5% target. Analysts suggest inflation might only fall below this level by the end of 2026.
Concerns Beyond Inflation
Experts express concerns about pessimistic investment dynamics, both public and private, and the critical state of public finances. Addressing these challenges, the EKF emphasizes the need for transparent financial systems, calling for government action to restore credibility and unlock funds.