The Central Statistical Office (GUS) confirmed that inflation in Poland reached 4.2% in July 2024. This final data aligns with preliminary estimates and reflects a significant increase from June’s 2.6%. The trend has been upward since March, with inflation consistently rising month by month.
Sectoral Price Increases
According to GUS, the most substantial price hikes were seen in the education sector, where costs surged by 9% year-over-year. Housing, energy, and utility costs also saw sharp increases of 8.7%, while restaurant and hotel prices rose by 7.6%. Additionally, alcohol, tobacco (4.4%), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.2%) also contributed to the overall inflation rise.
Interestingly, the only segment where prices declined was clothing and footwear, with a 1% drop despite the general inflation trend. Analysts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) noted that the inflation surge was partially driven by the recent lifting of electricity and gas price caps, which added 1.4 percentage points to the CPI.
Outlook for the Coming Months
Experts predict that inflation may temporarily rise to 5.0-5.5% in September and October due to statistical effects. However, it is expected to fall below 4.5% by the end of the year. Despite this, the possibility of inflation dropping to the National Bank of Poland’s target range remains slim, especially considering ongoing economic growth.