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    Pace of frontline operations in Ukraine to increase soon, ISW says

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    In its latest analysis, the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes that the pace of frontline operations in Ukraine may increase in the coming weeks as the ground freezes. Recent days have brought a kind of operational pause.

    Harsh weather conditions

    The Institute for the Study of War notes that the pace of operations along the frontline in Ukraine has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions. Operations are likely to accelerate in the coming weeks as temperatures drop and the ground freezes.

    Activities on the Ukrainian and Russian sides in the east and south are being slowed down by heavy rains and associated heavy muddy conditions.

    According to forecasts, temperatures are expected to drop next week. It will take several days for the ground to freeze, so the pace of operations could likely begin to pick up over the weekend of 3-4 December and beyond.

    However, it is not known whether “either side is planning or preparing to resume major offensive or counter-offensive operations on this date,” the ISW stresses.

    Map of the assessed control of Ukraine by ISW (scroll it)

    Low temperatures both at night and during the day are also forecast in the Kyiv area. A lot of snow is expected to fall from Sunday onwards. Meanwhile, millions of residents in and around the city are without electricity, heating and often water. Where supplies have been restored, intermittent outages are common.

    Ukrainian power grid operator Ukrenergo reported that energy producers were only able to meet about 70 per cent of needs, but this does not rule out restrictions and periodic shutdowns.

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