The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) has concluded that recently reinstated American tariffs on steel and aluminum will not significantly affect Poland’s overall exports. According to PIE’s latest economic bulletin, the total value of the likely affected exports from Poland to the United States amounted to around 207 million złoty in 2023—just under 2% of Polish exports to the U.S. and 0.07% of Poland’s total foreign sales.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a memorandum restoring the 25% tariff on imported steel and increasing the tariff on aluminum from 10% to 25%, effectively targeting Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the EU, Japan, and the UK. However, PIE analysts emphasize that these levies will not completely wipe out European exports of steel and aluminum, even though they may dampen demand for them.
PIE notes that while the American market accounts for 17% of EU steel and aluminum exports to non-EU countries, these products represent only about 0.4% of the bloc’s total exports to third countries. In Poland’s case, most steel and aluminum exports (83%) go to other EU member states. Consequently, the Institute observes that any near-term drop in U.S. demand is unlikely to severely undermine Poland’s trade performance.
Still, PIE warns that further American tariffs—especially on industries such as automotive—could carry greater risks for Polish and EU exporters in the longer term. “Tariffs on this sector in the EU will not immediately harm Polish exports, yet they certainly won’t help,” analysts concluded, underlining that the broader European supply chain remains crucial for Poland’s economy.