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    Poland’s Economic Outlook: OECD Projections and Policy Recommendations

    The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its latest forecast for Poland’s economy, predicting a 2.9 percent GDP growth for this year, alongside a Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 3.9 percent. For the following year, GDP growth is anticipated to reach 3.4 percent, with CPI inflation rising to 4.5 percent.

    Factors Driving Growth

    According to the OECD report, the uptick in real GDP is attributed to increasing real wages, fiscal policy support, and consumption growth, despite a sluggish investment climate. However, the withdrawal of zero VAT rates on food and the adjustment of electricity and gas prices are expected to push inflation upwards by year-end.

    The influx of EU funds is projected to revitalize investment activity in 2025, leading to a 3.4 percent GDP growth. Nonetheless, consumption growth will remain constrained by inflationary pressures and the desire to rebuild savings.

    Policy Recommendations

    OECD economists suggest a cautious monetary policy stance, advocating for gradual easing until inflation stabilizes within the National Bank of Poland’s target range of 2.5 percent with a deviation margin of +/- 1 percentage point.

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