The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has once again accused China of conducting a covert nuclear test, revealing additional technical details. Moreover, according to the U.S. Department of State, China is currently preparing for another test.
Christopher Yeaw, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, presented new information about the June 22, 2020 incident during a speech at the Hudson Institute in Washington. According to him, a remote seismic station in Kazakhstan recorded an explosion with a magnitude of 2.75, with its epicenter located approximately 720 km away, in the area of China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site in Xinjiang.
The event was identified as a single detonation rather than a natural earthquake. Yeaw stated that China used the technique of nuclear decoupling, detonating the device in a deeply excavated cavern, which significantly muffled the seismic signal and made detection by international monitoring systems more difficult. According to the Trump administration, this test violated the unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing that China imposed on itself under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which Beijing has signed but not ratified.
According to the latest information from the U.S. Department of State, China is now preparing for another test, potentially with a yield reaching hundreds of tons of TNT equivalent. These tests, described as concealed low-yield detonations, are intended to refine warheads and combat components. Yeaw emphasized that Russia is conducting similar activities – officially declaring adherence to the moratorium while in practice carrying out low-yield tests. This situation – according to U.S. officials – places the United States in an “unacceptable” position, as Washington has maintained a strict moratorium on nuclear testing since 1996, while its rivals secretly develop their technologies. President Trump has repeatedly stressed that the United States could resume nuclear testing on equal terms with other powers.
China is currently undertaking the fastest and most intensive expansion of its nuclear arsenal among all nuclear powers since the Cold War. According to a Pentagon report, China possesses 600 operational warheads. For comparison, in 2020 the arsenal was estimated at 300-350 warheads, meaning it has doubled in just five years. The most frequently cited forecast by the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence indicates that Beijing could have more than 1,000 operational warheads by 2030. Some estimates even suggest 1,300-1,500 warheads by 2035.