The sharp rise in the budget deficit, interest rates, and gasoline prices are just a few reasons for concern for Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, the British daily “The Telegraph” reported. According to the paper, the Kremlin ruler once again fears a coup.
Looking for enemies
The article recalls that in October Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) accused Mikhail Khodorkovsky — a Kremlin critic and former Russian oligarch — and 22 members of the Russian Anti-War Committee of planning a coup. Khodorkovsky, who is currently in London, insists the accusations are lies.
“This shows the Kremlin’s paranoia,” John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told “The Telegraph.” In his view, “Putin is looking for enemies in order to strengthen his regime.”
On the edge of recession
The British daily assessed that “the Russian economy is starting to wobble,” with signs including high interest rates that are paralyzing business activity, and a sharp rise in the cost of government borrowing. It recalled the warning from Russia’s economy minister Maksim Reshetnikov in June, who said the country was “on the edge of recession.”
“The Telegraph” also noted that “small pockets of protest are emerging.” The paper pointed out that in mid-October, hundreds of people gathered in a square in St. Petersburg to sing a banned song calling for Putin’s overthrow.
At the same time, Ukraine has aggressively stepped up drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which has had a negative impact on gasoline output. According to the calculations cited, since January Ukrainian forces have attacked 21 out of Russia’s 38 largest refineries — facilities where crude oil is processed into products such as gasoline. This has led to supply shortages and a 40 percent increase in gasoline prices since the beginning of 2025. The authorities have introduced gasoline rationing in occupied Crimea, and small gas stations in Siberia have been forced to shut down.
An economy in trouble
These Ukrainian attacks come at a time of stagnation in the Russian economy. In 2024, Russia’s real GDP grew by 4.3 percent. This year, the International Monetary Fund is forecasting growth of just 0.6 percent.
According to analyses by Craig Kennedy, a historian at Harvard University, around 23 percent of all loans issued by Russian banks were extended to arms manufacturers — and those loans have still not been repaid. He estimates their value at no less than 190 billion dollars. “That’s about 37 percent of the state’s annual budget,” “The Telegraph” noted.
Russia is also seeing a rapid surge in its budget deficit. “Since the beginning of the year, Russia’s finance ministry has raised its target deficit for 2025 to 2.6 percent of GDP — more than five times higher than the 0.5 percent expected at the start of the year — and by far the largest annual deficit since the pandemic. In cash terms, that would mean a deficit of 5.7 trillion rubles, or 50 billion pounds,” the daily calculated, adding that the actual deficit is likely to be even higher.
And then comes Trump
At the same time, U.S. President “Donald Trump tightened the screws,” “The Telegraph” wrote, announcing on Wednesday new sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies.
“For the first time in three and a half years, Russia is really feeling the impact of a crisis,” British historian Timothy Ash told the paper.
“I think there’s a certain panic in the Kremlin,” he added.