Experts in the field of energy and economics spoke on Republika TV’s program. Marek Zuber, Wojciech Jakóbik, and Daniel Czyżewski commented on the rising gas prices, policy of the Russian Federation, and diversification of supplies and energy transition.
Economist Marek Zuber pointed out that the increase in gas prices had many implications, and food price increases would depend on the situation in energy markets.
“Rising gas, electricity, and oil prices are taking a toll on virtually all products and services. Directly or indirectly, energy carriers are used everywhere. Through these increases, inflation will fall more slowly,” Zuber said.
“The increase in food prices is due to the increase in gas prices. We already see expenses from gas being more expensive this season. In 2022, we will see an increase in food prices due to rising gas prices,” he added.
Zuber also pointed out that the energy transition is a long-term and very costly process, which will affect citizens’ wallets.
“Ecology is unequivocally expensive. If we want to live in a clean world, we must pay the costs associated with pursuing that clean world. Polish politicians are not ready to say this clearly to the Polish society, because the Polish society is not ready for this. Our society is not ready to make these sacrifices because it is not as rich as German society. The decisions in the EU have been made, it’s just a matter of momentum of that process,” he said.
“The shift towards ecology is a shift that will require effort from all societies in the European Union, including financial effort. Unfortunately, we are not as rich as Western countries in this respect, so Poles will feel it relatively more,” added Wojciech Jakóbik from biznesalert. pl
Rising gas and electricity prices
The current energy crisis is due to both rising raw material prices and Vladimir Putin’s political game. He estimates that fuel and energy market shortages will continue into Q2 and Q3 2022.
“Rising energy and gas prices on European stock exchanges force everyone, including Poles, to raise their tariffs. This trend is expected to continue, plus inflationary pressures and feedback from high energy and raw material prices,” he noted.
He also added that due to the action of government agencies, the price increase will not be as severe for the public.
“If we took into account only market conditions, we would see increases of several hundred percent, while the Energy Regulatory Office also takes into account energy poverty issues, social considerations and these increases will be smaller, so they will not be as severe,” pointed out Jakóbik.
“The public is used to lower prices and a life of prosperity. It seems that the time of scarcity that has come will get us used to something else, tighten the purse strings,” he continued
Daniel Czyżewski of Energetyka24. com pointed out that the electricity price increases will not be that significant.
“In general, people don’t like price increases, we’ve seen that in recent months with price inflation for various goods and services. Increases in electricity prices are expected to be relatively small,” he said
“If you look at the energy price map, they have increased even more in Western Europe for the last few months,” he added.
“AgroUnia should direct its protests to the east, not to Anwil’s headquarters because Anwil had nothing to do with these price increases,” commented Czyzewski.
Moscow’s dirty business
All experts have referred to Vladimir Putin’s unfair play, pointing to the intentionality of the actions, which are to have consequences in terms of strengthening Gazprom’s position and making the European market dependent on Russian gas.
“Record gas prices are being deliberately raised by Russia’s Gazprom to force the launch of the Nord-Stream 2 pipeline as soon as possible. It is a form of gas blackmail hidden behind market mechanisms. Gas relations with Russia are always political. Russia makes its money mainly on selling oil, and Europe’s dependence on gas has political purposes. Their long-term thinking is aimed at consolidating Gazprom’s position on the market,” Wojciech Jakóbik noted.
“European officials have shown their gullibility, to say the least, in thinking that Russia is a partner that can be trusted, that will not brutally exploit its advantages, such as natural resources. 41% of Europe’s total gas consumption is Russian gas. Russia has played it very well and has led to an energy crisis in Europe and absurd energy prices. Russia plays a very clever game and uses gas for political purposes,” said Daniel Czyzewski.
Baltic Pipe as a chance for independence from Russia
Experts also pointed to alternative sources of gas supplies from other parts of the world, and the resulting talks with the Russian side.
“Russia’s stubborn stand on limiting supplies to Europe may push most European countries to look for alternatives in earnest, which would not be beneficial to Russia in the long run,” Marek Zuber said.
The economist emphasized that Poland is not in a bad situation, because 1/3 of consumption is domestic production, and we also have a gas terminal in Świnoujście, so in the event of a crisis, we can meet our needs without buying gas from Russia, so we will not face any consequences in case of gas shortage.
Zuber also said that turning to Russia is very dangerous for the European Union, but in his opinion, the coming months should bring a breakthrough.
“I do not believe that an agreement will not be reached with Russia, because Russia risks a lot by not getting along with the European Union. The European Union has an alternative to Russian gas and the Russians are also aware of that,” added Zuber.
Russian media suggest that Germany and others in Europe will not want to freeze and agree to launch the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, so it is important to reduce, not increase, dependence on gas from Russia, Jakóbik said.
The need to diversify supplies as well as the emerging new opportunities and the resulting opportunities for state-owned companies were also indicted.
“High gas prices are another argument for diversifying and building new routes to Europe that will allow it to become independent from Russia. If we look at it in the short term, we may be tempted to temporarily relieve gas prices that are cheaper than Russia, which is taking revenge with political consequences. The only thing that is certain now is instability and unpredictability, so we should look for a solution that will allow us to become independent from Russia in the long term,” said Wojciech Jakóbik from biznesalert.pl
“When the Baltic Pipe starts operating, gas prices will be completely different from what they are now. 25% of the gas that will flow in the pipeline will come from the deposit of PGNiG, which operates there and buys concessions,” noted Daniel Czyżewski from Energetyka24.com