A 40 percent chance of reaching an agreement, a 60 percent chance that talks will fail—that is how members of the Law and Justice (PiS) leadership assess the situation. Meanwhile, a contingency plan is emerging to defuse the internal conflict between the associations linked to former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and MP Jacek Sasin. We examined the current balance of power, identified the neutral “normals,” and looked at whether compromise proposals can prevent a final split before Thursday’s ultimatum.
Another meeting between Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki cannot be ruled out, although none has been scheduled yet, PiS spokesman Rafał Bochenek said on Sunday.
“Contrary to appearances, it was a good, promising meeting. There are further moves ahead,” a member of the party leadership told us.
“It could work”
For now, no date has been set for another high-level meeting. Intensive talks are currently taking place at a lower—but still important and decisive—level. A small group of politicians from the Nowogrodzka leadership circle, together with politicians close to Morawiecki, is negotiating behind the scenes.
The goal is to reach a compromise acceptable to both sides. But will it be strong enough to reconcile the opposing camps? Party leaders we spoke to believe there is still hope.
“At this point, I’d say there is a 40 percent chance of reaching an agreement and a 60 percent chance that it won’t happen. A formula can be found that allows all sides to come out of this with their dignity intact. There is some light at the end of the tunnel,” one of PiS’s senior politicians said.
The compromise currently under consideration would allow the Rozwój Plus association to continue operating, but as an organization outside the party. At the same time, a think tank would be established within PiS to serve as the association’s political arm inside the party.
The think tank’s activities would be co-financed by PiS, and it would be allowed to use the party’s logo. There is one condition—it would have to consult all of its initiatives with the party leadership. Meanwhile, Rozwój Plus would continue operating independently, but without politicians serving on its governing bodies, although party members would still be able to participate in its activities.
“It’s a win-win solution. No one has to withdraw the resolution banning associations within the party, and no one has to dissolve the association. I believe these two things can be reconciled,” one PiS leader told us.
The balance of power
What does the current balance of power between the rival camps look like?
By Friday, around 130 PiS lawmakers had submitted declarations stating that they were not members of, among others, the associations linked to former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and MP Jacek Sasin, as required by the party leadership. More declarations were submitted today.
Ultimately, we are told, the realistic total is expected to reach around 150 lawmakers.
Meanwhile, 45 parliamentarians—including Members of the European Parliament—signed a letter from members of Mateusz Morawiecki’s association addressed to PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński.
One MP from that group also decided to sign the resolution issued by the party leadership. There are no indications that anyone else intends to follow suit, and no one expects a significant increase in support on that side either.
The “normals” faction
A sizeable group of MPs has been watching the conflict between the Sasin and Morawiecki camps from the sidelines without joining either association. The group numbers around 40 parliamentarians, most of whom have been members of PiS and the Sejm for many years.
These politicians do not believe rigid factionalism benefits the party. Informally, they can be described as the “normals” faction.
We asked them what they think about the ongoing dispute.
The deadline for every parliamentarian to make their decision expires on Thursday, July 23.