Poland’s cabinet gave its seal of approval to the 2024 budget bill on Thursday, envisioning a path to economic recovery. The plan hinges on an expected GDP growth rate of 3 percent and an average annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 6.6 percent.
According to the draft budget, Poland anticipates revenues to reach PLN 684.5 billion (EUR 147.7 billion), while the government has set the expenditure ceiling at PLN 849.3 billion (EUR 183.3 billion). This projected spending pattern would result in a budget deficit of up to PLN 164.8 billion (EUR 35.58 billion).
One notable indicator in the budget bill is Poland’s general government deficit, an important metric for the European Union, which is projected to reach 4.5 percent of GDP in 2024.
The draft budget is brimming with optimism, forecasting a 3.0 percent GDP growth rate in 2024 due to factors such as “falling inflation, positive growth in real wages, and improved consumer sentiment.” Additionally, the government aims to boost private consumption by indexing the 500plus benefit to PLN 800 (EUR 173), with expectations of reaching a growth rate of 3.3 percent in 2024.
Furthermore, the draft budget foresees an upturn in Poland’s exports, with real growth expected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2024 from the anticipated 2.0 percent for the current year. Imports are also expected to align with this growth trajectory, increasing by 3.9 percent in 2024, following a 1.5 percent decline in 2023.
Unemployment is projected to remain low, with the registered unemployment rate estimated at 5.2 percent. In terms of wages, the average wage growth is forecasted to reach 9.8 percent by the close of 2024.
The next step for the budget bill is consideration by the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament.