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In September 2023, Poland experienced a notable shift in its inflation rate, as reported by the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Year-on-year, consumer goods and services saw an 8.2% increase, while compared to the previous month, there was a 0.4% decrease. This data comes after August’s inflation rate of 10.1%. Let’s delve into the key factors influencing these changes.
We wrześniu 2023 r. #ceny towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych wg szybkiego szacunku wzrosły w porównaniu do września 2022 r. o 8,2% (wskaźnik cen 108,2), a w stosunku do sierpnia 2023 r. obniżyły się o 0,4% (wskaźnik cen 99,6).https://t.co/UbBIgMYDZA#GUS #statystyki pic.twitter.com/PU1hmYGOM7
— GUS (@GUS_STAT) September 29, 2023
Energy Costs Fluctuate
According to GUS’s rapid estimate, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 10.3% compared to September 2022, but dropped by 0.4% compared to August 2023.
Energy prices also exhibited fluctuations, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase but a 0.8% decrease compared to August 2023. Notably, changes in regulations, such as free medicines for children and seniors and increased limits for frozen electricity prices, significantly impacted September’s inflation.
The cost of fuel for private transportation dropped by 7.0% compared to September 2022 and decreased by 3.1% from August 2023.
Economist’s Perspective
Kamil Pastor, an economist from PKO BP, noted that GUS did not account for the 12% reduction in electricity prices when calculating inflation, considering it a transfer of funds rather than a price decrease. He predicts a continued decline in inflation, estimating it to be around 7% by the end of 2023.
Inflacja CPI we wrześniu spadła wyraźnie mocniej od prognoz do 8,2% r/r (konsensus: 8,5%). Miesiąc do miesiąca ceny obniżyły się o 0,4% co jest najwyższym miesięcznym spadkiem cen od…stycznia 2016 r. Na uwagę zasługuje również silniejszy od prognoz spadek inflacji bazowej (do… pic.twitter.com/XkaRoYDU5W
— Analizy Pekao (@Pekao_Analizy) September 29, 2023
Poland’s inflation dynamics in September 2023 reflect the influence of regulatory changes, food price volatility, and shifts in energy and fuel costs. These factors, along with expert predictions, suggest a continued downward trend in inflation for the remainder of the year.