“For now, the President’s strategy—of not giving in and fighting to the very end—is prevailing,” wrote Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, the President’s adviser on European affairs, on X, commenting on the fading chances of signing the Mercosur agreement on 20 December. Italy and France have clearly signaled their opposition to finalizing the deal in its current form. Tempers, however, flared on the other side. “If we do not do this now, Brazil will not sign this agreement as long as I am president,” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, Italy and France announced that they were not ready to support the agreement, creating a problem for the European Commission, as its President, Ursula von der Leyen, is scheduled to travel to Brazil on 20 December to sign the deal.
As Saryusz-Wolski reported yesterday, the vote on the Mercosur agreement has been dropped from the agenda.
He shared further updates on Wednesday. The veteran MEP indicated that “as of today, we have a blocking minority.”
He recalled that this was precisely the purpose of President Karol Nawrocki’s persuasive visits to EU capitals, including Rome and Paris.
Brazil Loses Its Nerve. President Lula: Now or Never
The Mercosur countries, by contrast, are keen on a swift conclusion of the agreement. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reacted sharply to the clashing positions within the EU.
“If we do not do this now, Brazil will not sign this agreement as long as I am president. If they say ‘no,’ from then on we will be tough with them. We have made all the concessions that diplomacy could agree to,” Lula said during a cabinet meeting.
On Tuesday, the European Parliament adopted a safeguard clause. The chamber decided that the procedure designed to protect domestic agricultural producers—potentially leading to the closure of a single market or the entire EU market to imports from Mercosur—would be triggered when prices of sensitive products in the EU fall by 5 percent, rather than the 10 percent originally proposed by the European Commission. However, during negotiations on the final wording of the clause on Wednesday, the European Parliament reached a compromise with the Danish presidency representing the member states, and the final threshold was set at 8 percent.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said it was premature to speak about the possibility of signing an agreement with the Mercosur bloc in the coming days. In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, she stressed that a package of additional measures to protect agriculture is necessary.
France and Poland are opposed to the deal, but to block its approval they need two more countries to join them, including at least one large member state. Italy’s position may therefore prove crucial in building a blocking minority.