According to the latest report from the European Commission, Poland could become the leader in debt growth in Europe over the coming decade. The document states that “the risk to Poland’s fiscal sustainability in the medium term is high,” and projects a steady increase in public debt to approximately 107% of GDP by 2036.
In recent years, particularly following the change of government, Poland’s public debt has risen sharply. In December 2023, when Donald Tusk’s cabinet assumed power, public debt stood at approximately PLN 1.3 trillion. According to data from November 2025, it has already reached PLN 1.9 trillion. This means that over two years Poland’s public debt increased by around 46%.
The debt-to-GDP ratio has also been rising dynamically and in 2025 likely approached or slightly exceeded 60%, which under EU policy constitutes the “safety threshold.”
The latest annual Debt Sustainability Monitor published by the European Commission brings troubling projections for the Polish economy.
It concludes that “the risk to Poland’s fiscal sustainability in the medium term is high” and forecasts a continuous increase in debt to about 107% of GDP by 2036.
According to the analysis, the baseline debt trajectory projection accelerated significantly in 2025 compared with previous years’ projections, which had assumed a 2036 debt level of 70–80% of GDP.
Currently, Poland ranks 13th among EU countries in terms of debt level (at 59.5% of GDP). However, based on the European Commission’s forecasts, by 2036 Poland would rank 7th in the European Union. Only Italy (149.1%), France (144%), Belgium (137.4%), Greece (123.5%), Finland (113.9%), and Spain (107.7%) are projected to have higher debt-to-GDP ratios. This means that over the next decade Poland is expected to lead the EU in the growth of its debt-to-GDP ratio.
The sharp increase in Poland’s debt is attributed to the so-called “snowball effect,” whereby interest payments on debt grow faster than GDP.