The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that the violation of Polish airspace was a planned action by Russia. According to the American analytical center, it is unlikely that this was the result of a mistake or malfunction, especially given the large number of drones involved.
On the night of September 9 to 10, three times more drones violated Polish airspace than during similar incidents since February 2022, the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
“It is unlikely that such a number of drones could appear by accident or as a result of a technical malfunction,” ISW analysts believe.
Since 2022, six such cases have been recorded, while just a few days ago more than 20 machines entered Poland.
Unprecedented defense
According to ISW, the purpose of Russia’s actions was to test Poland’s and NATO’s response to an airspace violation, also within the framework of a potential armed conflict scenario. According to a statement from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), for the first time NATO aircraft used weapons in the airspace of a member state. ISW notes that Russia carefully observed the reaction of Poland and NATO to these events.
Another significant issue is the impact of the attack on Western military aid for Ukraine. The motive behind Russia’s actions may have been to reduce public support for continued assistance to Ukraine, fueled by fears of further similar attacks. According to ISW, a large part of Russian and Belarusian disinformation efforts are operations aimed at placing responsibility for this incident on Kyiv. In this way, Russia seeks to influence the debate in Poland regarding aid for Ukraine.