The Niezależna.pl portal reported that during the night from Wednesday to Thursday, residents of the Terespol municipality spotted drones that had arrived from the direction of Belarus. At the same time, the Operational Command of the Armed Forces Branches stated in an official communiqué that “no threat to the security of the airspace of the Republic of Poland has been identified.” Meanwhile, official statements from the Border Guard indicate that nearly two hundred incidents involving balloons were recorded last year. However, mass violations occurred in December 2025 and January 2026. “Such dynamics indicate that the phenomenon will not subside on its own, but will continue to escalate until it reaches a critical point,” said Col. Mariusz Kozłowski, a security expert, in an interview with GPC.
For several years, Russia and Belarus have been conducting activities against Poland and other Western countries that amount to hybrid warfare, using tools such as migration pressure, cyberattacks, and disinformation operations. In recent months, there has also been an intensification of actions in another area—violations of Polish airspace.
Drones and balloons over Poland
These incidents have intensified particularly since September last year. On the night of September 2–3, two drones entered Polish airspace and, after several dozen minutes of flight, left the country on their own. A far more serious incident occurred a week later—on the night of September 9–10—when 23 objects entered Poland.
At the turn of September and October, an increase was observed in the use of balloons to violate Polish airspace. Two such balloons appeared on September 26 in the vicinity of Białystok. Another three were detected on October 21 near Michałowo and the town of Gródek. All of these objects were also carrying contraband in the form of cigarettes without Polish excise stamps.
On November 5, the Border Guard reported finding a drone filled with illegal tobacco near the village of Szudziałowo. A similar incident occurred near Bobrowniki on November 30, 2025.
Mass violations of Polish airspace
In December, just before Christmas, a mass violation of Polish airspace took place, first reported by Telewizja Republika. On the night of December 24–25, approximately 60 balloons entered Poland from Belarusian territory.
On December 29, the Border Guard issued a statement noting, among other things, that “since the beginning of the year, the Podlaski Border Guard Unit has recorded 135 incidents related to cigarette smuggling using meteorological balloons.” Several days earlier, data were published from the Nadbużański Border Guard Unit (responsible for protecting the external border, including in the Lublin Voivodeship, along sections bordering both Belarus and Ukraine), which in 2025 registered over 50 incidents of illegal smuggling “with the use of meteorological balloons.”
Another mass violation of Polish airspace occurred in January, specifically on the night of January 16–17. Niezależna.pl was the first to report that approximately 50 balloons entered Poland from the direction of Belarus; in addition to contraband, they were equipped with GPS transmitters. Shortly after this incident was disclosed, Codzienna asked the Ministry of the Interior and Administration how many balloons had been recovered. In the response received, no information was provided on the number of located balloons; instead, it was noted that “the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border is fully monitored.”
A communication problem
This, however, is not the end of provocations organized by Minsk and Moscow against Poland. On Thursday, Niezależna.pl revealed that residents of the Terespol municipality had observed drones that allegedly arrived from the Belarusian side during the night of January 21–22. The portal sought comment from spokespersons for the Police, the Border Guard, and the Operational Command of the Armed Forces Branches, but received no response. Later that afternoon, the Operational Command issued a statement confirming that on Wednesday, January 21, in the evening hours, “increased activity of small unmanned aerial vehicles operating over the Polish-Belarusian border was observed.” It added that “no threat to the security of the airspace of the Republic of Poland has been identified.”
On Thursday morning, Codzienna asked the Border Guard for information on how many objects had violated Polish airspace from June 2025 to the present. During a telephone conversation, we were told that “it is necessary to extract these data,” and that an official email request should be submitted, which we did immediately. After several hours, we followed up by phone and were told that no email had been received, even though other institutions had no problem receiving similar correspondence that day from the same address. Ultimately, the Border Guard informed GPC that “in this matter, please contact the Operational Command of the Armed Forces Branches.” Consequently, we also submitted official questions to the Operational Command.
A clear increase in the number of incidents
We asked Col. Mariusz Kozłowski, a retired officer of the Military Counterintelligence Service and a security expert, to comment on the situation.
“If the data are accurate, this means that we are seeing a clear increase in the number of incidents involving foreign objects in Polish airspace. Such dynamics indicate that the phenomenon will not subside on its own, but will continue to escalate until it reaches a critical point that may pose a serious threat to state security. As for how the Polish system is responding—especially in terms of information policy—since last Sunday, when several dozen such objects entered Poland, we have had some sort of communication problem. I admit that I do not know what it stems from. Is the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, together with the military, unable to coordinate and issue clear, reliable, and detailed statements?” Col. Kozłowski told us. “In general terms, however, looking from the opponent’s perspective at what is happening, we can say that unfortunately we are losing a certain kind of information war as a society. We are underinformed, and underinformation in the 21st century leads to speculation, ambiguity, and the formulation of hypotheses. Society has been left on its own. Either the issue has become routine for the ministries, or there truly are insufficient forces and resources to respond to it,” the expert added.