The British Daily Telegraph published its final predictions regarding the U.S. presidential election on Friday, forecasting a narrow win for Donald Trump. However, analysts emphasized that with a tight race, much of their predictions rely on intuition.
Rozina Sabur, a correspondent from the newspaper’s Washington office, noted the difficulty in making a confident prediction, stating, “Who is going to win the election? The most honest answer I can give is: I have no idea. But I’m in good company.” She pointed out that polling results, both nationally and in key swing states, fall within the margin of error. Sabur observed a more optimistic mood within the Trump camp than in the Harris camp, noting Trump’s recent surge in the polls.
Political historian Tim Stanley, who had previously predicted a tie, now also anticipates a slight Trump victory. According to Stanley, Trump’s support in recent polls surpasses his 2016 and 2020 numbers, which could indicate that polling institutions have refined their methods or that Trump’s popularity is stronger than expected.
Ben Butcher, a data editor at Daily Telegraph, noted that polls showing a 1-2 point difference are ambiguous but highlighted that Trump led in five out of seven swing states in recent days. At the same time, Harris’s campaign appeared to be losing momentum.
Poppy Coburn and Tony Diver, also from the Daily Telegraph, predicted a Trump win based on their instincts. Diver cautioned that, as in 2016, polls might underestimate Trump’s support and that a definitive result could be delayed due to recounts and other factors.
“But no election night with Trump has been without surprises,” Butcher concluded, suggesting that the night may hold unexpected developments.