August brought no positive surprises in Poland’s economic data, according to Bank Pekao economists. They highlighted the continuation of sluggish trends in both construction and retail, which have been ongoing for months. Despite this, the bank maintains its forecast of a 3% economic growth for 2024.
Retail sales in August grew by 2.6% year-on-year in constant prices and by 1.1% month-on-month, according to data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). However, economists emphasized that consumer spending remains subdued, with no signs of a consumption boom. They attributed this to cautious spending habits amid high interest rates and a preference for saving.
In the construction sector, output in August dropped by 9.6% year-on-year, with a 1.5% decline compared to July. Bank Pekao analysts linked this decline to weak investments, particularly during a transition between two EU budgetary periods, drawing parallels to similar trends seen in 2016. Despite these challenges, they anticipate a recovery in the construction industry later in the year, fueled by investments in transport and energy projects.
Overall, Bank Pekao economists see no reason to revise their GDP forecast for 2024, expecting growth to accelerate to over 4% in 2025 as investments pick up.