The most telling assessment of Donald Tusk and his administration comes from his patrons across the Oder River. The German press laments that the Polish Prime Minister, following Karol Nawrocki’s presidential election victory, will now be compelled to “take Polish national interests into account.” It is difficult to find a more pointed and candid evaluation of the policies pursued thus far by the leader of the December 13 coalition.
For several weeks now, Germany has remained in a state of ongoing shock over Poland’s political developments. Despite a sustained media and political offensive launched by journalists, politicians, and other influential public figures in Germany, Poland’s patriotic camp continues to gain strength. Meanwhile, Tusk—after less than 18 months in office—is a mere shadow of his former self.
The steady decline of the December 13 coalition has provoked consternation among Germany’s political class. Outraged by the electoral choices of the Polish people, German commentators have not withheld their criticism of the Law and Justice party (PiS) and the president-elect—criticism that, by extension, also targets Donald Tusk himself.
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung writes that although Prime Minister Donald Tusk secured a vote of confidence in the Sejm, “it did little to help him.” The paper’s journalist Florian Hassel bluntly observes: “The electoral victory of Donald Tusk and his three-party coalition in December 2023 changed little: PiS President Andrzej Duda obstructed the restoration of the rule of law, as he could veto any legislation—a veto that could only be overridden by a two-thirds majority, which Tusk’s coalition does not possess” (as quoted by dw.com).
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung also highlights Tusk’s political weakening, noting that many hold him responsible for Rafał Trzaskowski’s electoral defeat.
“In the best-case scenario, Poland faces another two and a half years of ongoing political confrontation. Given that PiS’s Karol Nawrocki is now set to serve a five-year term as president, this political impasse will continue even if Tusk—or a successor—wins the next parliamentary elections. A far worse scenario would see PiS winning the next elections and governing with the far-right Confederation party, leading to the collapse of the rule of law and a full transition to authoritarian rule, akin to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary,” Hassel continues.
Setting aside the hyperbolic tone of the German journalist—which echoes the ideological fervor of 1980s Soviet Pravda articles on Solidarity—we turn to another outlet: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
The influential FAZ warns of a potential alliance between Jarosław Kaczyński and Sławomir Mentzen. “Kaczyński has previously stated he is prepared to accept Tusk’s resignation and, failing that, to make governing so difficult that the coalition steps down before the regular parliamentary elections in autumn 2027. Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the far-right Confederation party, also declared that ‘the swiftest possible collapse of this government is in Poland’s best interest,’” the paper reports.
Berlin’s left-leaning Der Tagesspiegel notes with dismay that “after Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat in the presidential election ten days ago, the government’s original plans have become obsolete. The incoming head of state, Karol Nawrocki, who represents PiS interests, will continue to obstruct the government through his veto power.”
“The strategic objective of Tusk’s camp has fundamentally shifted,” the paper states. Having anticipated Trzaskowski’s victory, “the prime minister was finally preparing to take decisive action—expecting no further threat of vetoes. Instead, he now finds himself on the defensive and must do everything in his power to prevent PiS from winning the next parliamentary elections. If they succeed, they could continue restructuring the Polish state in the style of Orbán’s Hungary from 2015 to 2023, aided by the PiS-aligned President Nawrocki,” writes Tagesspiegel’s Christoph von Marschall.
The columnist further predicts that Tusk will become a more difficult partner for both Germany and the European Union. “More than ever before, he will have to prioritize the national interests of the Polish people—many of which conflict with the political agenda of the German government and the European Commission, whether on the Green Deal, climate and energy policy, migration and asylum, or defense and relations with Ukraine,” von Marschall concludes.