Speaking to the portal Niezależna.pl, Dr Andrzej Anusz described Donald Tusk’s organisation of a medical summit in opposition to President Karol Nawrocki’s earlier-announced initiative, as well as his attempt to overturn the presidential veto on the cryptocurrency bill, as “an attempt to declare political war,” said the political scientist from the Józef Piłsudski Institute.
The actions taken in recent days by Donald Tusk’s government indicate a desire to intensify political conflict on the so-called domestic front. On the one hand, something the public has already grown accustomed to, new motions for the State Tribunal (TS) have been filed against key politicians of Law and Justice. On the other hand, Tusk again decided to confront President Karol Nawrocki, who enjoys broad cross-party support among the conservative opposition and a fresh electoral mandate.
The prime minister’s hastily assembled medical summit, meant to politically overshadow the presidential summit announced in November, along with the attempt to overturn Karol Nawrocki’s veto on the cryptocurrency bill, preceded by the classification of the prime minister’s address allegedly devoted to state security, signal political escalation and a test of strength.
Tusk is fighting the president
Dr Andrzej Anusz from the Józef Piłsudski Institute told Niezależna.pl that this escalation might stem from the recent strong polling numbers of the Civic Coalition and the slightly improved, though still weak, polling of the government. “The government still has more opponents than supporters, as does the prime minister himself, but last month this shifted slightly in Tusk’s favour,” he noted, adding that “we are dealing with a political offensive, an escalation that is directed mainly against President Karol Nawrocki’s actions.”
“The president prepared his medical summit much earlier, and in response the government organised a similar meeting on the state of the healthcare system. This was a direct attempt to minimise the importance of the summit held today at the presidential palace. On top of that, we have an attempt to declare a sort of political war, because for the first time there was an attempt to overturn the president’s veto concerning the cryptocurrency bill, which the president had vetoed,” he explained.
The political scientist also pointed to the classification of part of Friday’s sitting of the Sejm, which – according to leaks – “had a Russian context,” saying that “this ended in a defeat for Donald Tusk, because he failed to get the veto overturned and did not reach the required three-fifths majority, so in my view this political battle was lost by Tusk.”
The coalition holds and intends to hold
Asked whether the governing camp’s determination to intensify political polarisation could, with favourable polls, lead to early elections, Dr Anusz rejected the idea, saying that “the budget has been passed in the Sejm and although it still needs to go through the Senate and return, it is clear the governing coalition is rushing to adopt it.” He added that “if the budget were not adopted on time, the president could dissolve parliament, but that scenario is unlikely, and the polarisation Tusk is driving mainly serves to strengthen the Civic Coalition.”
He noted that recent polling shows the current polarisation “is taking place along the Tusk–Nawrocki axis,” saying that “it strengthens the Civic Coalition, while smaller groups fail to cross the electoral threshold; the Left is hovering at the threshold, but without certainty of re-entering parliament.” As a result, “the Civic Coalition acts as a hegemon, dictating terms to the entire coalition, which strengthens Tusk,” he explained.
Czarzasty in tandem with Tusk
He pointed out that after the change of the Sejm Speaker, “Czarzasty has effectively joined a tandem with Tusk,” saying that “this is shown by the entire operation involving the classified session of the Sejm and the swift motion to vote on overturning the presidential veto.” He added that “Czarzasty is fully aligned with Tusk and acts as his loyal subcontractor, which strengthens the Civic Coalition and the prime minister.” According to him, “Tusk is trying to redefine the axis of polarisation: for years it ran between the Civic Coalition and Law and Justice, but now the governing coalition is building it along the axis of the prime minister versus the president, which in Tusk’s view weakens Jarosław Kaczyński and Law and Justice.”
Tusk “put on a uniform”
Asked whether remaining in power until the end of the term could be politically advantageous despite unfulfilled promises and mounting problems, the political scientist said that “we are going to see a clash of two scenarios: one arising from growing problems in healthcare, mining and other areas, which will fuel opposition support; and another related to security issues, where Tusk ‘has put on a uniform’ and is building his authority, especially given the context of Russia.” He concluded that “the fast and efficient adoption of the budget shows that the government intends to keep governing rather than call elections.”