In Polish elections, there has always been the presence of a political construct designed to guarantee power for politicians determined to uphold the core arrangements of the “Round Table” agreement. Such a “kingmaker” mechanism ensured the persistence of a political reality that radically limited Poland’s aspirations and guaranteed the subordination of our country to Berlin – writes Witold Gadowski in Gazeta Polska.
This phenomenon intensified after the era of Chancellor Helmut Kohl and continues to this day. It is sustained by Donald Tusk’s comprador party, consistently supported by one-off political constructs emerging from the security services’ milieu. Will the same pattern repeat in the 2027 elections? There will certainly be another attempt to deceive Polish voters.
The crude initiative of Wadim Tyszkiewicz failed, Szymon Hołownia’s flock has fallen apart, and Ryszard Petru no longer offers any sense of novelty. So… a new grouping called Polska Centrum has been created under the leadership of the not particularly sharp accountant Paulina Hennig-Kloska. Perhaps that will be enough – think the slightly panicked guardians determined to prevent Poland from moving toward full independence. Leftovers of Hołownia’s movement, loosely stitched together with Petru and remnants of other experiments, are meant to provide Tusk with the necessary edge and the ability to cobble together another governing coalition.
More suspicious observers also speak of a so-called “safety variant,” which would involve enticing Mateusz Morawiecki to split Law and Justice (PiS) and enter into alliances with Tusk. How much of this is rumor and wishful thinking will only become clear in 2027. However, security-service analysts cannot rely on the current situation. They receive reports showing growing support for right-wing parties that could play a much more significant role after the elections than they do today. They also know that if they fail to build a convincing illusion of a centrist party, voters may play a trick on them by pushing “Round Table” parties out of real contention for power.
They must hedge their bets – and this is how I interpret the latest trial balloons suggesting that Rafał Brzoska, polished by media portrayals of major business success, might enter politics. Potentially, it is Brzoska’s new party that could become the key element in quietly constructing a lifeboat for Tusk. Brzoska, presented as independent and economically focused, would lend his name to a new version of the Palikot-Petru-Hołownia-style political tricks.
Naturally, Brzoska’s party would be branded as critical of the current ruling coalition. Once again, it would attract those searching for the mythical yeti of Polish politics – a “third way.” Everything would be coated with the gloss of modernity, the fight for a secular state, and guiding Poland through the murky waters of the European Union. Of course, remaining in the EU would become a central priority of Brzoska’s agenda. The problem is that Brzoska himself does not seem particularly eager to devote time to playing a role in this politically engineered circus. Moreover, he shows signs of independence, which could create serious difficulties for those attempting to construct this project.
A far safer bet seems to be putting wind in the sails of Hennig-Kloska’s initiative. The issue, however, is that the leader’s lack of intellectual sharpness may lead to a “Kidawa-Błońska syndrome,” where an accumulation of blunders and publicly voiced absurdities causes the project to collapse on its own.
Tusk’s overseers face one more problem – after the recent unchecked activity of Włodzimierz Czarzasty, support for the post-communist left may fall below the electoral threshold, forcing them to quickly inflate yet another political balloon.