The American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), warns Poland of a possible sabotage operation targeting its critical infrastructure. The operation would reportedly be carried out by Russian and Belarusian special services.
The ISW presented a scenario in which Russia and Belarus would launch a sabotage operation against Poland by sending drones. Ukraine would then be blamed for the attack.
On September 30, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) made an unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing a false-flag attack on critical infrastructure in Poland in order to implicate Russia and Belarus.
According to ISW, the Kremlin may have instructed the SVR to issue this statement as a way of avoiding responsibility for a possible future Russian and Belarusian sabotage operation targeting Poland.
Russian Disinformation Campaign
The Washington-based think tank emphasized that the Kremlin frequently uses the SVR to spread unfounded claims about attacks as part of disinformation campaigns aimed at weakening support for Ukraine and sowing doubt regarding Russian provocations against NATO countries.
As stated in the ISW analysis dated September 30, the Kremlin is most likely preparing an information environment that would allow it to accuse Ukraine of future attacks that Russia itself may carry out against Poland or other NATO countries.
On September 26, Russia similarly accused Ukraine of a recent drone incursion into Polish and Romanian airspace, which it claimed was intended to provoke a war between NATO and Russia. Polish and Romanian authorities linked these drone incidents to Russia.
Kovalenko: Russia Wants to Test the Resilience of Poland’s Border
Ukrainian media, citing Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, also reports on Russia’s plans.
“Russia may test the resilience of Poland’s border by sending sabotage and reconnaissance groups and attempting to cross into Polish territory,” Kovalenko stated.