Tension Rises After Late Poll Results
The latest Ipsos late poll shows a shift in the race. According to this poll, Karol Nawrocki has received 50.7% of the vote, while Rafał Trzaskowski has 49.3%. The earlier Ipsos exit poll had given Trzaskowski the lead. Voter turnout is estimated at 71.7%.
Late Ipsos Poll: Karol Nawrocki – 50.7%, Rafał Trzaskowski – 49.3%. A Shift in the Lead!
The difference between the two candidates in the late poll is 1.4 percentage points. Ipsos estimates the statistical margin of error for this poll at 1 percentage point.
In the exit poll published immediately after polls closed, Trzaskowski was ahead with 50.3%, compared to Nawrocki’s 49.7%—a difference of 0.6 percentage points.
If these poll results are confirmed, this will be the closest second round of a presidential election in Poland’s post-communist history.
Since 1990, the narrowest margin between two candidates was in 2020, when Andrzej Duda won the second round with 51.03%, while Rafał Trzaskowski received 48.97%—a difference of 2.06 percentage points. Duda secured 10,440,648 votes, and Trzaskowski 10,018,263. The outcome was decided by 422,385 votes. The first late poll released back then by Ipsos gave Duda 50.8% and Trzaskowski 49.2%, estimating the difference at 1.6 percentage points.
The late poll is based on official results from 50% of randomly selected polling stations where Ipsos conducted its survey. One more Ipsos poll is expected on election night, incorporating data from 90% of polling stations. After the first round of voting, this poll was released around 2:30 a.m.; this time, TV networks have announced it will be published around 1:00 a.m. The margin of error will decrease to 0.5 percentage points.
In the first round of the election, Trzaskowski received 31.36% of the vote, while Nawrocki garnered 29.54%. Voter turnout stood at 67.31%.