Bloomberg agency points out that the United Kingdom and France are currently at the forefront of Europe’s response to geopolitical threats. Notably absent from this list are both Poland, which holds the EU presidency, and Germany. Bloomberg assesses that internal issues are paralyzing Germany, but greater responsibility could be taken by Italy, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and even British monarch Charles III.
“Britain and France – friends and foes over the last centuries – have apparently set aside their post-Brexit disputes (…) and are standing as a united front in defense of Ukraine and Europe. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have appointed themselves as leaders of the charge, committing to sending troops to Ukraine (…) to ensure peace with Russia,” writes Bloomberg, commenting on the diplomatic activities of Starmer and Macron, who were recently received at the White House and organized meetings of Western leaders on Ukraine.
A Shift in Europe’s Axis?
Bloomberg notes that the military size of these two countries, combined with their nuclear and intelligence capabilities, means that the British-French tandem has an advantage over the traditional French-German axis in the face of the Russian threat, which has been the traditional engine of European integration.
However, both France and the UK have their own problems, Bloomberg observes. Starmer came to power promising to end the decade-long austerity policies under the Conservatives and did not expect to have to find a way to increase defense spending. Meanwhile, Macron, who cannot run for re-election in 2027, must by the end of his term curb the rise in popularity of far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen.
Italy as a New Hope for Agreement
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could also play an important role in talks with Trump, as one of the few European leaders with a good relationship with the White House host and his advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, Bloomberg notes. However, her country does not meet the 2% GDP defense spending requirement, and her pro-European policy could be further complicated by the resistance of her pro-Russian coalition partners from the League.
Among other figures who could influence discussions on Ukraine’s future, Bloomberg mentions Rutte, Charles III, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while also noting that Merkel faces accusations of leading the EU into greater dependence on Russia.
Germany Left Behind
“The country that has been left out in all this is Germany, the driving force of Europe’s economy and the lender of last resort in many crises. The German military was deliberately weakened after World War II, and a fundamental obstacle – not just psychological – to increasing defense spending is the debt brake enshrined in the constitution,” Bloomberg notes.
While European allies are thinking about ways to reduce dependence on the US in security matters, Turkey, which has the second-largest army in NATO, could also play its card. However, it demands a high price for this, the agency writes. As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, “Only full membership of Turkey in the Community can save the European Union from the impasse it finds itself in, both economically and defensively.”