“Donald Tusk said he would take action to block this agreement, yet ultimately he did not even oppose it (…) not only did he fail to expand the blocking minority, but he also lost the political capital previously accumulated,” said Błażej Poboży, advisor to President Karol Nawrocki, in an interview with Niezalezna.pl, commenting on the Prime Minister’s participation in Thursday’s summit in Brussels.
An evolution of views
At the beginning of September, Donald Tusk assured that “Poland will oppose it if [Mercosur – ed.] becomes a fact“, although he admitted that this trade agreement would “probably” be adopted by a majority vote. “Poland will oppose Mercosur because we want to show, to demonstrate, that we will not give up when it comes to the interests of Polish agricultural producers. But right now, there are no partners to block it,” he emphasized. A month and a half later, during a meeting with his supporters in Piotrków Trybunalski, his opposition to the Mercosur agreement was far less firm. The Prime Minister explained that farmers and consumers should not fear Argentine beef, arguing that meat produced in Poland could be competitive both in price and quality. He also assured that he himself would not buy Argentine beef.
Merz spilled the beans
After returning from Thursday’s European Council summit, during which the Mercosur agreement was discussed among other topics, Tusk remained silent on the issue. He only summarized the Council’s conclusions concerning the revision of the ETS2 system and the lack of agreement on using frozen Russian assets to provide a loan to Ukraine.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, however, did comment on the Mercosur deal. “Member states no longer have any objections. It’s done. It’s passed. The path to the agreement is open,“ said Merz, referring to the consent of all 27 EU countries to sign the deal. European Council President Antonio Costa tried to distance himself from Merz’s remarks, but both he and Merz admitted that the agreement is to be signed by the end of the year – according to Merz, by December 19.
The German Chancellor’s words indicate that, contrary to his earlier declarations, Donald Tusk did not oppose the adoption of solutions detrimental to Poland.
Tusk deceived
Błażej Poboży, advisor to President Karol Nawrocki, told Niezalezna.pl that “Donald Tusk treats his own declarations in a frivolous and unserious manner.” He recalled “his most telling statement, when he tried to mock his own key campaign proposal – the 100 specifics.”
“And in this case, the situation is exactly the same. Donald Tusk said he would act to block this agreement, and ultimately he didn’t even oppose it. Moreover, he lost a certain blocking minority that still existed when Law and Justice was in power. In other words, not only did he fail to expand it, but he also squandered the political capital previously accumulated,” he said.
Civic Coalition politicians see no problem
When asked what actions President Karol Nawrocki, who has declared open opposition to the Mercosur agreement, could take in this situation, Błażej Poboży stressed that “all tools and instruments for conducting policy – including agricultural or broader economic policy – are in the hands of the government.”
“Of course, the President can support efforts to build such a minority capable of blocking the Mercosur deal through diplomatic initiatives. However, this would require the government’s commitment to joint action in that direction,” he emphasized.
“If we take Chancellor Merz’s statements as true – and we have no reason to think otherwise – it is clear that the Polish government is not particularly interested in this issue. Moreover, listening to some politicians’ statements, even during Donald Tusk’s now-famous meeting with his supporters in Piotrków Trybunalski, one gets the impression that Civic Coalition politicians do not really see a problem with this agreement,” he assessed.
He assured that President Karol Nawrocki “is entirely on the side of Polish farmers.” “He understands what this agreement could mean for them. If we add to that the fact that the Mercosur agreement is being implemented simultaneously with the one involving Ukraine – and given that the situation of Polish farmers is already bad – it will simply become dramatic,” he explained, stressing that “demands and expectations“ in this matter should be directed toward the government.
Public backlash will be massive
When asked whether he sees the farmers’ struggle as isolated and lacking broader public support for their efforts to block the Mercosur agreement, the presidential advisor said he does not share that impression.
“This may be because, unfortunately, the information space is already filled with many disputes and conflicts over issues that stir stronger emotions. So something that does not yet directly affect some citizens fails to spark much reflection or, consequently, a public debate. But I have no doubt that when the first negative consequences of such measures begin to take effect and start to affect Poles, the public backlash will be enormous. The question is whether it will then be too late to act. Unfortunately, Donald Tusk’s government – and Tusk himself – is adept at channeling public emotions into areas convenient for him, meaning those that do not concern accountability for his two years in power. He focuses only on those that allow him to concentrate disputes and create conflict, such as the issue of further investigations or the increasingly heated matter of Pegasus. Or even the simplest issue – the merger of Civic Platform with its coalition partners,“ he explained.
He noted that “Donald Tusk manages information, having behind him the state-controlled media and a large portion of media sympathetic to him.“
“And if it weren’t for some independent or social media outlets, it would be extremely difficult to reach the public with arguments against such solutions. But I am convinced that social resistance will eventually arise, and only that – as experience has shown – can influence Donald Tusk’s decisions and those of his political base,” Błażej Poboży concluded.