The Netherlands is hosting this year’s NATO summit. During the two-day meeting in The Hague, discussions are expected to focus on European security, the situation in the Middle East, and defense spending. According to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, defense expenditures are set to rise to 5% of GDP over the coming years.
“Declarations may vary, but implementation is another matter—as demonstrated by the 2014 summit in Cardiff. Despite the passage of 11 years, many NATO countries still fail to meet the 2% of GDP defense spending threshold agreed upon at that time,” said Prof. Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski, political scientist and international affairs expert, in an interview with Niezależna.pl.
At a press conference ahead of the summit opening on Tuesday, NATO chief Mark Rutte emphasized, “The defense spending threshold must reach 5% of GDP.”
The defense investment plan to be adopted by the Allies in The Hague introduces this new target—5% of GDP. “This is a significant leap—ambitious, historic, and essential in light of current threats,” Rutte stated.
He added that increased defense spending would, among other things, lead to a fivefold increase in NATO’s air defense capabilities. He also affirmed the Alliance’s continued support for Ukraine.
For months, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged allies to allocate at least 5% of their GDP to defense, stressing that only such a commitment would allow NATO to significantly enhance its deterrence and defense capabilities. Trump has also pointed out that this decision should have been made years ago.
NATO member states appear to be aligning on the plan to raise the defense spending threshold—except for Spain. According to Rutte, Spain will sign the summit’s final declaration but will not commit to the 5% GDP defense spending goal. The proposal is opposed by Spain’s left-wing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. It is worth noting that Spain allocated just 1.28% of its GDP to defense last year—the lowest among all NATO members.
“The experience of the 2014 Cardiff summit, where member states committed to spending at least 2% of GDP on defense—and the subsequent challenges in implementing that commitment—warrants skepticism regarding the latest declaration to raise the threshold,” Prof. Żurawski vel Grajewski noted in his interview.
“From Poland’s perspective, it would be important to formally withdraw from the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. However, this will not happen at this summit. The key issue that should be addressed is the strengthening of the military presence on NATO’s eastern flank. This could be achieved by relocating forces from Germany and Italy. While this would be justifiable in some respects, it would signal a weakening of German-American relations. Following Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s recent visit to Washington, such a shift appears unlikely,” he added.
Another matter is the potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict—how, and for how long. While an increased U.S. military presence in Europe cannot be ruled out, it currently seems improbable, he further noted.
“President Trump is pursuing a policy of reducing, not increasing, the burden on the United States. Moreover, attracting greater American military presence would require initiative from the Polish government, which is unlikely, as such a move would not align with German interests or policy,” Prof. Żurawski vel Grajewski argued.
He added that the United States is likely to seek an expanded NATO mandate, aiming to link its network of alliances. “We are witnessing renewed dynamism in the U.S. alliance system in the Indo-Pacific—whether with Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, or with Australia and New Zealand. It is possible that Washington will try to integrate this Indo-Pacific network with its European counterpart, in line with the notion that the U.S. forms the core of both systems.”
“It is also important to remember that the current geopolitical situation is extremely dynamic—both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. During the NATO summit, Russia may attempt some action designed to make an ‘impression’ on the gathered leaders in The Hague,” he added.
One thing is clear: after the summit concludes, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government will not propose any independent initiatives. It will follow Germany’s lead—and Berlin has no interest in accelerating any security-related measures,” he concluded.