A new poll from the highly regarded Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza (OGB) has revealed that Karol Nawrocki, the conservative candidate supported by Law and Justice (PiS), would narrowly defeat Rafał Trzaskowski in a hypothetical second round of Poland’s presidential elections. According to the survey, Nawrocki garners 50.6% of the vote compared to Trzaskowski’s 49.4%. This slim lead is significant, as it’s the first time Nawrocki has come out on top in such a scenario, signalling a possible shift in the country’s political mood.
Why Is Trzaskowski Losing Ground?
For many voters, Rafał Trzaskowski seems to represent an increasingly out-of-touch liberal elite. His focus on aligning Poland with European Union policies and his progressive social agenda have not resonated with large portions of the population. Critics point out that Trzaskowski often seems more concerned with pleasing international audiences than addressing the concerns of ordinary Poles.
On the other hand, Karol Nawrocki’s campaign emphasizes national pride, protecting Polish traditions, and putting families first. His approach strikes a chord with voters who feel ignored by liberal politicians and crave leadership that prioritizes Poland’s sovereignty and unique identity. For these voters, Nawrocki’s message is clear: Poland comes first.
The Poll That’s Shaking Things Up
The OGB poll, conducted between January 21-23, surveyed 1,000 respondents using a respected method that excludes undecided voters. With just a 1.2% difference between the two candidates, it’s a tight race, but Nawrocki’s slight lead is still a major milestone. OGB is well-known for its accurate predictions, having won awards for its spot-on election forecasts in recent years, which adds credibility to these findings.