The question of inflation in Poland for 2025 remains uncertain, as National Bank of Poland (NBP) President Adam Glapiński has unveiled two potential scenarios. The outcome largely depends on whether or not energy prices are unfrozen.
According to Glapiński, making a reliable long-term inflation projection is challenging due to the unclear future of energy prices. “The government has yet to make a decision or announce anything regarding this matter,” he stated.
Although some government representatives have hinted at continuing protections to shield households from price hikes, Glapiński noted that the 2025 budget has been drafted with an expected increase in energy prices. Additionally, he pointed out that the budgeted funds for controlling price increases are only half of what might be needed.
Consequently, the NBP has prepared two inflation scenarios. The first scenario assumes a full unfreezing of prices as of January 1, 2025, which Glapiński indicated could push inflation above 6% in the first half of the year.
“The second scenario assumes a slight rise in inflation, with a return to the target inflation range—2.5% ±1 percentage point—by 2026 if current interest rates are maintained. By the end of the year, we should be within target,” the NBP President explained.
These projections offer insight into Poland’s economic outlook, contingent on energy pricing policies, and provide critical information for businesses and households preparing for the year ahead.