To be honest, I’ve always been skeptical about the possibility of calling early elections. I still believe that scenario isn’t the most likely one—but from what I can see, its probability is increasing. It’s no longer possible this year, but next year could accelerate political developments — writes Tomasz Sakiewicz in the latest issue of Gazeta Polska.
First of all, I no longer see any possibility of rebuilding public support for Donald Tusk and the entire ruling coalition. They are on a downward slope, clashing with more and more social groups. The government’s radical actions against the opposition are met with increasing resistance from institutions. Simply put, judges, prosecutors, police officers, and tax officials don’t want to risk their necks for a government that breaks the law. Moreover, this style of politics is losing followers. Years go by, and those who once felt disappointed by the PiS government are now becoming disillusioned with Platforma’s rule. Hardline supporters expected tangible results—revenge was supposed to be only one of many promises. The rest simply haven’t materialized, and even revenge no longer tastes as sweet. Can the government finish its term and rebuild support by focusing solely on fighting the opposition? Certainly not the latter, and the former is becoming increasingly unlikely. But beyond that, there’s nothing left.
The ruling coalition, for example, can’t even agree internally on changes to abortion law—setting aside the fact that such a bill would be vetoed by the president anyway. Instead, they’ve tossed a symbolic bone in the form of civil unions. In reality, the new proposal changes very little, and from an image standpoint—particularly for the PSL—it turned out disastrously. So instead of fulfilling even part of their promises, they’re angering voters with superficial moves.
The only lifeline for the ruling camp would be replacing the prime minister with someone less politically burned out. Reportedly, Tusk himself refuses to accept that idea. But leaving everything unchanged—that’s the real slippery slope. If Tusk manages to hold onto the government, we’ll see more “emigration attempts” like Hołownia’s. At the same time, those who stay will become increasingly inclined to “rock the boat.” Next year, the ruling coalition could lose all ability to govern effectively.
If not a change of prime minister, then new elections. For PiS, it might be optimal to wait until the scheduled election date, since Civic Platform (PO) will gradually descend into self-destruction. The problem is that by then, Poland will be in complete ruin.
Therefore, it’s time to start thinking about a new deal—what should be changed immediately and what should be done methodically. Negotiating potential coalition arrangements isn’t the most important task; election results will determine that. I have a hunch that PiS’s current poll numbers are understated. In any case, if PiS wants to reclaim some ground from Confederation, it shouldn’t engage in open conflict with them but rather showcase people and projects appealing to that electorate. That approach is far more effective. However, if Confederation fails to clearly declare that it wants to remove Tusk from power, it will lose a significant portion of its voters to PiS—because its base is strongly opposed to him. This will only become apparent shortly before the elections, when it will be too late for Confederation to change course.
It’s time to wake up from the illusion of favorable polls.