How would Poles vote today if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday? According to a poll by OGB, the Civic Coalition still leads; however, it would end up completely alone in the Sejm.
A study published on Wednesday by the Nationwide Research Group (Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza) for the Stan 360 portal shows that the Civic Coalition can currently count on 37.99% support (an increase of 0.1 percentage points), while Law and Justice records 29.77%, with a more noticeable rise of 1 percentage point.
In third place would be Confederation with 11.42%, despite a drop of 1.5 percentage points. The Confederation of the Polish Crown would also enter the Sejm, reaching 10% support and gaining 1 percentage point.
Tusk alone in the Sejm. The Right gains strength
Left-wing and centrist parties would remain outside parliament: New Left (4.92%), Razem Party (3.29%), Polish People’s Party (1.57%), and Poland 2050 (1.04%).
The seat distribution simulation highlights a clear problem for the Civic Coalition; despite finishing first, it could count on 209 seats, which is not enough for a majority in the Sejm. Law and Justice would obtain 159 seats, Confederation 47, and Confederation of the Polish Crown as many as 45.
Such a configuration implies one thing: the right side of the political spectrum is gaining the potential to build a majority, while the Civic Coalition remains without a natural and sufficiently strong coalition partner.
The survey was conducted using the CATI method between March 25 and April 4 on a representative sample of 1,000 respondents.