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The latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reveals a positive upturn in Poland’s economic gears. In the third quarter, GDP growth reached 0.4%, signaling a shift towards a faster pace of expansion. Analysts anticipate this growth trajectory to exceed 2% in the coming quarters.
The factors propelling this economic acceleration include a sustained decline in inflation, driven by investments trending above 5%, and a net export surplus of 0.4 billion euros in September. Despite challenges from inventory cycles, consumption, and weak external demand, rapid data and real wage growth indicate a resurgence in consumer spending.
Paweł Borys, President of the Polish Development Fund (PFR), outlines a soft landing strategy. He envisions a scenario of controlled economic slowdown, achieved through a prudent mix of monetary tightening and countercyclical fiscal policies, maintaining a deficit of around 5% of GDP.
2024 Growth Potential
Borys speculates that Poland’s economic growth in 2024 could pleasantly surprise, potentially surpassing 3%. The official GUS report on Q3 GDP is expected on November 30.