An increasing number of Poles do not believe Donald Tusk’s government will remain in power after the next parliamentary election. A new United Surveys by IBRiS poll shows a clear majority of respondents expect the current ruling coalition to lose office. Notably, doubts are emerging even among some of the coalition’s own supporters.
Although the next parliamentary election is still nearly a year and a half away and the campaign has yet to begin, opinion polls are already gauging whether the coalition that took office on December 13 would be able to secure another term.
Will Tusk stay in power? Most Poles say no
According to a United Surveys by IBRiS poll conducted for Wirtualna Polska, 58.3 per cent of Poles believe the current governing coalition will not remain in power after the next parliamentary election.
Of those respondents, 31.3 per cent are firmly convinced the coalition will lose power, while a further 27 per cent consider that outcome rather likely.
A significantly smaller group holds the opposite view. In total, 22.9 per cent of respondents believe Donald Tusk’s camp will remain in office. Only 7.2 per cent answered “definitely yes”, while 15.7 per cent chose “probably yes”.
Meanwhile, 18.8 per cent of those surveyed said they were unable to predict the fate of the current coalition.
Even coalition supporters have doubts
The greatest optimism is found among supporters of the parties that make up the governing coalition. Sixty-four per cent believe the coalition will retain power after the next election. At the same time, nearly one in five voters backing the current government (19 per cent) expect it to lose, while another 17 per cent say they have no clear opinion on the matter.
Opposition voters take a very different view. As many as 95 per cent believe Donald Tusk’s coalition will lose the next parliamentary election. Within that group, 57 per cent say they have no doubt about the outcome.
Supporters of the Confederation (Konfederacja) and the Confederation of the Polish Crown (Konfederacja Korony Polskiej) are even more convinced. Among them, 96 per cent expect the current governing camp to lose power. Interestingly, responses were split evenly: 48 per cent answered “definitely not”, while another 48 per cent chose “probably not”.
The poll was conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS for Wirtualna Polska between 10 and 12 July 2026 using CATI and CAWI methods on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.