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    Recent Trends in Inflation and Price Growth in Poland

    In recent months, the average rate of price growth has been close to zero, as observed by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) while commenting on the Central Statistical Office (GUS) data on Monday. Experts at PIE predict a slight decrease in inflation for August.

    The Central Statistical Office announced today that consumer goods and services prices in July 2023 increased by 10.8% year-on-year, with a 0.2% decrease compared to the previous month.

    “Inflation decreased to 10.8% in July. GUS data indicates a decline in prices compared to the previous month, for the first time since February 2022. However, the structure of changes is very diverse among products,” noted PIE in its commentary.

    According to PIE, “services continue to experience significant price increases, with the main reasons for the lack of changes in CPI over the past quarter being the decline in clothing and transportation prices.”

    “For the last three months, the average pace of price growth has been close to zero. Services have been rapidly becoming more expensive, while goods have seen minimal increases. This structure will persist in the coming months, and inflation will remain high,” PIE assessed.

    In PIE’s view, the downward trend in transportation prices is coming to an end, as the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil increased from $79 to $87 since July.

    “Hence, inflation is expected to decrease slightly in August. Despite holiday promotions, fuel prices will elevate CPI,” predicts PIE.

    According to PIE, industrial goods are expected to experience decreasing prices mainly in the upcoming quarters.

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