In recent days, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs suggested it might be necessary to expand the country’s nuclear and missile arsenal. This development follows changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine made by President Vladimir Putin in November 2024, which reserve the right to respond with nuclear weapons to a conventional strike that poses a “critical threat” to the sovereignty or territorial integrity of the Russian Federation or Belarus.
General Ben Hodges, former Commander of the United States Army Europe, spoke to the Polish outlet Niezalezna.pl about the implications of these threats. He believes that although Russia’s rhetoric must be taken seriously, the likelihood of a nuclear conflict remains extremely low.
“I think the possibility [of Russia using nuclear weapons] is almost zero,” Gen. Hodges said. “Of course, we have to treat it seriously, because they have thousands of nuclear warheads and they clearly don’t mind killing innocent people. But it simply doesn’t pay off for Russia to use nuclear weapons. There’s no battlefield use for them.”
According to Hodges, key international players—including China and India—have already cautioned Russia against escalating the war to the nuclear level. He also highlighted that any such action by Moscow would have severe repercussions from the United States, regardless of who occupies the White House.
“Probably Russia’s only hope for victory is that U.S. President Donald Trump would withdraw support for Ukraine,” Hodges explained. “At the same time, Trump would undoubtedly see Russia’s use of nuclear weapons as a major challenge and a personal insult. And that would have catastrophic consequences for Russia.”
When asked about NATO’s potential response time should Russia deploy nuclear weapons against an Alliance member, Gen. Hodges underscored the immediate gravity of any such attack but noted that a nuclear counterstrike would not necessarily be the first or only response option.
“I don’t know if it would require an immediate American response with nuclear weapons,” he said. “The United States doesn’t need to use its nuclear arsenal. There are other means to respond.”
Looking ahead to possible shifts in NATO’s commitments to Ukraine, Hodges argued that the real challenge lies in the Alliance’s—and particularly the United States’—lack of a clearly articulated strategic goal of securing a decisive Ukrainian victory.
“The problem is that NATO still lacks a clear objective,” he said. “Without a defined goal, it’s impossible to build sound policy. That’s what we’re missing.”
As Russia continues to brandish its nuclear capabilities, regional and global powers remain watchful. For now, military experts like Gen. Hodges maintain that the nuclear option holds more rhetorical than practical value for Moscow.