Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Inflation in Poland slowed to a rate of 16.1% year-on-year in March, instead of the initially estimated YoY by the Polish Central Statistical Office.
However, this slight correction does not change the broader picture: the growth of prices in Poland will slow down very slowly. Inflation in Poland, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose by 16.1% YoY in March, according to GUS on Friday. It previously estimated that the increase in the CPI was slightly higher. The final rate is still a significant disappointment compared to economist forecasts, which averaged a decline in inflation in March to 15.8%. Only four out of 22 analytical teams participating in the monthly “Parkiet” survey anticipated a result above 16%.
CPI rose by 1.1% in March compared to the previous month after increasing by 1.2% in February, indicating that inflation has slowed down for the second consecutive month (in January, it was 2.5%). However, it is difficult to consider this as the beginning of a sustainable trend, as CPI increases were even smaller in the last two months of 2022.
The slowdown in inflation is mainly due to the high base from a year ago in the case of fuel and energy carrier prices, particularly fuels. As a result, goods increased by 17.1% YoY in March, the lowest since July, after 20.2% in February. Meanwhile, services increased by 13.3% YoY, the same as in the previous two months. It is encouraging that services increased by 0.8% in March compared to February, the lowest since November.
Economists maintain their forecasts that inflation will continue to slow down in the following months, and many still believe that the CPI’s dynamic will be in single digits by the end of the year.