0.0455% — this was precisely the chance that one candidate would be drawn to speak last in the 13th round three times in a row during consecutive draws. By an extraordinary stroke of luck, this occurred in the case of Rafał Trzaskowski. The current head of TVP (Polish Public Television) is Tomasz Sygut, formerly the vice-president of Warsaw’s public transport authority under Trzaskowski’s mayoral administration.
Tomorrow marks the scheduled presidential debate on the soon-to-be-dissolved TVP. Thirteen candidates will face off in thematic blocks, vying for support in the final stretch of the election campaign.
In recent weeks, the issue sparking the greatest controversy has been the identity of the debate moderator. During a meeting of the presidential candidates’ campaign teams at TVP headquarters (currently undergoing liquidation), objections were raised against the potential co-moderation by Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf, known for her partisan criticisms of the current opposition. Her detractors cited a lack of journalistic objectivity.
Nevertheless, she has been confirmed as the moderator who will pose questions to the candidates.
Krzysztof Stanowski posted on platform X the speaking order for the debate. Upon analyzing the order of candidates’ appearances, one notices a lack of repetition in speaking positions—until one observes Rafał Trzaskowski.
The Deputy Leader of the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) will speak last in the final three rounds of the debate — from the fourth to the sixth round.
The results of the draw (?) were commented on by Wojciech Mucha on X. Using artificial intelligence, the columnist calculated that “the probability of one person drawing position 13 three times consecutively is approximately 0.0455%.”
Drawing number 13 three times in succession (in this specific format) is about 6,367 times more likely than winning the jackpot in the national lottery (Lotto). However, according to ChatGPT, encountering one’s doppelgänger is statistically more probable
Mucha notes.