The latest IBRiS poll shows a clear advantage for the right-wing bloc over left-liberal parties. Confederation and Law and Justice (PiS) together reach almost 50% support, while Civic Coalition (KO) and the New Left remain far behind. Experts predict that such trends could signal a radical change in the Sejm after the 2027 elections.
The Right Has the Greatest Potential to Govern
The latest IBRiS poll for “Rzeczpospolita” brings very good news for the right. Data collected shows that the combined support for Law and Justice, Confederation, and Confederation of the Polish Crown of Grzegorz Braun reaches as much as 48.3%. This is significantly higher than the left-liberal bloc under the 13 December coalition, which – according to the survey – could count on a total of 37.6%.
In a head-to-head scenario, the highest support goes to Civic Coalition, which receives 30.4% of the votes. This result is identical to the previous survey at the end of October. Law and Justice scores 27.1%, representing a slight decline within the margin of statistical error. The third force remains Konfederacja with 16.1%, recording the largest increase – 1.1 percentage points. The New Left can count on 7.2%, and Confederation of the Polish Crown of Braun on 5.1%. Other parties would not surpass the electoral threshold.
IBRiS president Marcin Duma commented on the survey results for “RP”:
“We are dealing with a zero-sum game,” he said, pointing out that the current balance of power can only last until a major shock hits the political scene. In his view, such a breakthrough could come from outside the country. “The end of the war in Ukraine would be a signal for Poles and a problem for Braun’s party and Confederation, as well as an opportunity for KO and PiS,” he emphasized.
Meanwhile, Prof. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University speaks about potential shifts in the balance of power:
“Changes within the margin of error. Stability that will last, but cannot be maintained until the elections. The honeymoon after the presidential elections is over. The opposition has a majority, but it is KO that is leading,” he assessed.