How would Poles vote if parliamentary elections were held today? The Research Partner agency checked this using the Ariadna panel — and the conclusion is clear: Tusk’s team would lose its majority.
KO in the lead, but…
According to the poll published on Wednesday by Research Partner and conducted via the Ariadna panel, if parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, the Civic Coalition (KO) would come in first with 29 percent of the vote.
Law and Justice (PiS) would receive 27.6 percent, while the Confederation would take third place with 11.6 percentsupport.
Also entering parliament would be the Left (without the Together party), backed by 7.1 percent of respondents, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown, chosen by 6.4 percent of those surveyed.
Below the electoral threshold would be Poland 2050 (3 percent), Together Party (2.9 percent), and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) (1.1 percent). Other minor groups were indicated by 1.5 percent of participants. About 10 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
Voter engagement remains high — 69.3 percent of Poles declared they would participate in the election (including 53.8 percent “definitely yes” and 15.5 percent “rather yes”).
Seat distribution would strip Tusk of power
The survey shows that the Civic Coalition would win 179 seats, PiS – 178, the Confederation – 56, the Left – 27, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown – 20.
This distribution means that the current ruling coalition would secure a total of 206 seats, while the opposition parties would hold 254 seats in the lower house of parliament. The results clearly indicate that Donald Tusk’s coalition would no longer have a parliamentary majority today.
The poll was conducted by Research Partner using the Ariadna Research Panel between October 31 and November 3, 2025, on a nationwide sample of 1,090 people aged 18 and over, selected according to gender, age, and size of place of residence.