“I do not know whether this will happen, but the opposition’s dismissal of such a scenario could come back to surprise it. Most commentators believe that, when it comes to early elections, the ball is in the opposition’s court. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are only two circumstances that can lead to early elections: failure to pass the budget (which, despite constitutional doubts, has already been passed) or the loss of a governing majority. This means that the timing of early elections depends solely on those currently in power. In other words, the entire ruling camp, or a part of it, would have to decide to go to the polls. Counting on Tusk’s smaller coalition partners was a mistake,” writes Tomasz Sakiewicz in the latest issue of the weekly Gazeta Polska.
With their support, it is possible to replace the prime minister, and this is one of the realistic scenarios. This is precisely what Donald Tusk fears most. His strategy of politically flattening his coalition partners effectively discourages them from pushing for early elections. If they were to run independently, they would disappear from the political scene.
By running alongside Tusk, they risk being absorbed. Their options are therefore limited to enduring the current situation and further humiliations, or engaging in a project aimed at changing the government.
In my view, some members of the ruling camp are gradually coming to this realization. In the next Sejm under Tusk’s leadership, there may be no place for them. In a potential new government, however, they could play leading roles. By entering into an arrangement with PiS and Confederation, they could also secure favorable positions on electoral lists. The logic of such a development is obvious; the real obstacle lies in the minds and characters of the MPs from the ruling camp. I am convinced that the moment Tusk loses his majority, for example, as a result of a revolt within Poland 2050, it will mark the last moment PSL remains in this government. It will join a new one.
Donald Tusk is well aware that the governing majority is far from secure. He is also aware of one more thing: public approval for the ruling camp will continue to decline. Repressive measures no longer generate mass support, and an increasing number of people want nothing to do with them. So what should Tusk do? Obviously, he should escape into elections, taking most of his coalition partners with him. It is risky, but it is the only way for him to remain in power. Any other scenario will likely deprive him, perhaps permanently, of the opportunity to serve as prime minister.
For the opposition, this is a dangerous scenario, as it is simply unprepared for it. It is therefore necessary to keep in mind a scenario that, until recently, seemed the least likely.